September 2024. The cancer is back. Stage 4. Metastatic.
May/June 2024: Started showing symptoms again. Something wasn’t right.
August 2024: Colonoscopy found tumor in small bowel.
September 2024: First chemo treatment. That’s when they told me the staging. Stage 4.
Nearly four years after stage 3, we’re in a different territory now. The five-year survival curves look worse. The treatment options narrow.
And a decision to make: what now?
The Statistics
Stage 4 changes the probability distribution. Median survival is measured in years, not decades.
I understand the statistics better than most patients:
- I know what median means (half live longer, half don’t)
- I understand confidence intervals
- I can read Kaplan-Meier plots
- I know how censoring affects reported outcomes
This knowledge doesn’t help. It just makes the uncertainty more precise.
The PhD Decision
I defended my mathematics master’s last October (2023). Almost a year ago.
People ask: “What about the PhD you were planning?”
I actually tried to start in Fall 2024. Had the GRE scheduled. While driving to the test center, they canceled on me. Rescheduled, but by the time scores came back, I’d missed the deadline.
At the time, frustrating. In retrospect: perfect timing.
The chemo I’m on now is intense. There’s no way I could have handled coursework in Fall 2024.
Now? Starting PhD spring 2025. By then, treatment should be more stable.
Why PhD With Stage 4 Cancer?
The reasoning is simple:
If I have 2-5 years: I can complete significant research If I have less: The work still matters, even incomplete If I have more: Great, I’ll finish
The degree itself doesn’t matter. The research does.
PhD programs give you:
- Access to computational resources
- Collaboration opportunities
- Structured research time
- Legitimacy for ambitious projects
And critically: time to work on problems that matter without having to justify immediate commercial value.
What Changed
Stage 3 gave me urgency. Stage 4 gives me clarity about what’s worth doing.
I’m not interested in:
- Safe, incremental research
- Publishing for metrics
- Academic politics
- Work that doesn’t matter
I am interested in:
- AI safety and alignment
- Computational suffering
- Complex networks analysis of AI systems
- Statistical methods that might outlive me
- Hard problems worth solving even if unsolved
PhD lets me work on these without asking permission.
The Time Calculation
Optimistically: 5 years is enough for a PhD and meaningful research
Realistically: 3 years is enough for good papers and tools
Pessimistically: 1 year is enough to make progress worth preserving
Any of those outcomes is better than not starting.
The Math Degree I Defended Last Year
I defended last October (2023). Topic: maximum likelihood estimation for series systems with masked, censored failure data.
The irony wasn’t lost on me during the defense: I’ve become a series system. Cancer affects multiple organs. Treatment affects everything. Failure of any critical component is catastrophic.
I was literally studying the mathematics of the process I’m living through.
Now: almost a year later. Stage 4 diagnosis. Failed attempt to start PhD in Fall 2024. Planning for Spring 2025 start.
The Practical Reality
Stage 4 means:
- More frequent medical appointments
- Treatment side effects
- Uncertainty about time horizons
- Physical limitations
But I’ve been managing this for three years already. I know how to:
- Work between chemo cycles
- Document when energy is low
- Batch computational work
- Accept reduced productivity
The PhD will have to accommodate this. But that’s fine. The work matters more than the pace.
What’s Different This Time
Stage 3 was scary but felt manageable. “Beat it once, you can beat it again.”
Stage 4 is different. This isn’t about “beating” cancer. It’s about managing a chronic condition until I can’t.
The optimization problem changed:
- Not: maximize lifetime
- Instead: maximize meaningful work given uncertain lifetime
PhD is the right tool for this optimization.
What I’m NOT Doing
I’m not:
- Being brave or inspiring
- Fighting heroically
- Staying positive
- Finding silver linings
I’m just:
- Making decisions based on probability
- Optimizing for meaningful work
- Accepting uncertainty
- Continuing forward
Cancer doesn’t make you wise. It makes you confront tradeoffs explicitly.
The Plan
October 2023: Defended math masters thesis May/June 2024: Started showing cancer symptoms again August 2024: Colonoscopy found tumor in small bowel September 2024: Stage 4 diagnosis, started chemo September/October 2024: Tried for Fall 2024 PhD admission, GRE canceled, missed deadline Fall 2024: Treatment too intense for coursework anyway Spring 2025: Start PhD in Computer Science Focus areas: AI safety, complex networks, statistical computing
Whether I finish the PhD or not, the work will exist.
That’s what matters.
Stage 4 in September 2024. Defended October 2023. Starting PhD spring 2025. Let’s see what we can build.
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